Featured Notes
Top Questions for China in 2023
We address some major questions for China in the new year, including China’s rapid transition to living with Covid, the strength of the economic recovery, the new head of government, and the outlook for US-China relations.
Chartbook: Taking Stock of US-China Relations
Structural issues will persist, with the US reinforcing its support for Taiwan, expanding its export control regime, and continuing to treat China as a national security threat.
Recent Highlights
Waiting for the Credit Rebound
China’s January credit data was better than expected, but yoy credit growth hit a new low; we expect only a modest credit recovery this year.
Easy Goals and Hints at Top Roles
China’s provinces are being conservative with this year’s GDP growth targets, and their messaging on boosting consumption and the private sector feels stale.
Dubious GDP, Sanguine Outlook
China’s Q4 GDP and December economic data are far better than expected but need to be read critically.